Law Of Averages

Hello,
When I was in High school one of the classes I took was biology, the guy that taught the class was a good guy. I should remember a lot more about that class than what I’m about to tell you but I don’t, so I hope Mr. Mullins never reads this. The one thing I remember is an experiment we did, and the point of this experiment was to teach us about the law of probability. Mr. Mullins had us flip a coin 10,000 times and count how many times it was heads and how many times it was tails. He said that a lot of people believe in luck and chance and he didn’t. He said that we were all lucky 50% of the time and that luck doesn’t have anything to do with being successful in science, school or life. So for 5 days we flipped that quarter and guess what? 5001 times it was heads and 4999 times it was tails. I’ve always remembered that lesson. I’ve remembered it for a couple of reasons. One is because when I’m flipping a coin with my friends to see who buys lunch, I always call heads. If I loose, I call heads the next time because I know what the result will eventually be. The other reason is because when people tell me the reason that there not winning is because there not drawing very good steers, that’s not correct. One guy doesn’t draw any better than the next guy, 50% good ones 50% not so good.

I had a guy come up to me at the end of last year and he told me that the reason I won so much last year is because I drew great. I said “ALL YEAR!” you think I drew good for 12 months I ask? The guy is living in a fairy tale world. The reason I started thinking about this again is because in the middle of July there is a really good rodeo in Nampa Idaho. There’s allot of added money and all of the best teams are there and it’s a critical rodeo in the pursuit of National Finals. Every one gets a steer early Monday morning at 7am. That’s not that early but it’s the Monday after a tuff week that has us all driving and competing at Colorado Springs, CO. Vernal, UT. , Casper, WY. And Sheridan, WY. Some guys had to drive all night form Colorado Springs and barley made it in time. But even if you didn’t have to drive all night everyone is not that fresh on Monday. Like I said everyone ropes one steer then about 25 teams get there second steer that morning. Then we have to drive to Salt lake to compete on Tuesday. Jake Barnes and Clay O’Brien Cooper made a great run and won the first go round with a 4.9. They were one of the teams that got there second steer that same morning and they came back and was a 4.8 and placed on there second steer as well. The finals for the Rodeo were on Saturday night and they made another great run and won the Championship at Nampa. When I was unsaddling my horse that morning I heard some guys on the other side of my trailer talking about how lucky Jake and Clay were to draw those two great steers at a great rodeo. I smiled to myself and drove towards Salt Lake.
We left Nampa about 10 am and just outside of Salt Lake there is a great fairgrounds to stay at in Farmington, UT. When I got there, their was already several rigs there and I parked and put my horses away, It’s hot in Utah in July and it usually is and that day was no exception. I gave my horses a bath because it was about 3:30 pm and close to 100 degrees with not a breath of air. I got my lawn chair out and set in the shade and guess what I saw, Jake Barnes carrying a dumb bell in each hand and he ran 3 miles in that heat. I thought no one would do that in this heat. I was wrong, there was one more guy running about ½ hour latter. You guessed it, Clay ran by. I laughed out loud because I thought that’s why those guys draw so good, right there. You honestly think those guys win as much as they do because there luckier than you are. If you do your nuts, Those guys have won, are winning and will continue to win because they work at it and so can you if your willing to do what winners do. Winners eliminate distractions, work at there trade and make sure there prepared when the coin lands on heads. If it happens to be tails, no problem because you and I both know what’s coming tomorrow.

Until next month
Thanks for your time
Walt Woodard